Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-24 15:03

45%
Win Probability
-2.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-22.0 to +18.0]
2
Boom Potential
Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST
3
Bust Risk
Bucky Irving (48%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Omarion Hampton (58%)

Start/Sit Decisions

: Start over ['Jameson Williams', 'Tetairoa McMillan']
: Start over ['Jameson Williams', 'Hunter Henry']

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.321.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.715.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton HOU14.914.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.822.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. CIN12.914.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.29.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Tetairoa McMillan SEA12.314.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.49.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.37.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 47% boom / 20% bust
ADD Jayden Daniels (QB) 34% boom / 30% bust
ADD Jordan Love (QB) 27% boom / 21% bust
Protected (Playoffs)

Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Championship week vs Kitty's Piggy Skins. 5-round Crystal Society debate produced consensus: MHJ at WR2 (3/4 votes for ceiling in 52.5 game total), McMillan at FLEX (4/4 unanimous - 5 TDs in 5 games). FLOOR agent dissented on Williams but was overruled. KC QB disaster (Mahomes/Minshew ACL) makes Rice unstartable.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 21.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 14.9 14.0
Jameson Williams WR WR 13.4 12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.8 22.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.2 9.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE 12.9 14.0
Jason Myers K K 8.4 9.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.3 7.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.7 9.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 9.8 7.0
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 8.3 7.0
Rashid Shaheed (bench) WR BE 9.4 6.0
Sam Darnold (bench) QB BE 15.9 16.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 12.3 14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 7.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
0.0 Actual
125.0 LLM Total
122.9 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Dak Prescott QB QB 20.5 ---
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 ---
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 ---
Deebo Samuel WR WR 11.9 ---
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 ---
Tyler Warren TE TE 12.1 ---
DeVonta Smith WR RB/WR/TE 12.4 ---
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 ---
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST 8.9 ---
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.7 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) RB BE 10.7 ---
Dallas Goedert (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
Taysom Hill (bench) TE BE 10.4 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 19.4 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
127.0 Opp LLM Total
127.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: -2.0 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 54% bust but poorly calibrated. Brissett has been QB1 in every start (20+ pts in all 8 games). CIN is 2nd-worst pass defense. Game total 52.5 (highest). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 21 pts (within 16-24 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: Backup QB. SEA @ CAR as backup to Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16 pts (if started).

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE (13.8 EV). XGB: 48% bust but model under-predicts RB performance. TB -5.5 favorites = positive game script. MIA Rank 23 vs RB (average). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15 pts (within 8.3-20.3 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 55% BUST. Split backfield with Pollard. TEN vs NO. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts (within 0.2-7.7 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 46% MODERATE. Fresh off IR return, LAC primary back. LAC -1.5 vs HOU = close game. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: KC decimated at QB (Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting). DEN -13.5 favorites = negative game script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE (17.9 EV), 27% BOOM. SEA WR1 with 104-1637-10 on 143 targets (monster season). CAR Rank 10 vs WR (favorable). SEA -7 favorites. Mode: MODERATE (high-end). Projection: 22 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST but XGB only 22% bust - XGB weighs recent form (5 TDs in 5 games). OROY favorite (65-924-7). Panthers fighting for playoffs (7-8). SEA Rank 11 vs WR (favorable). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts. DEBATE BACKUP for MHJ if injured.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE (12.1 EV). XGB: 42% BOOM (highest). INJURY CONCERN: 51% snaps Week 16, heel. But game total 52.5 (elite), CIN Rank 4 vs WR. If healthy, has boom equity. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts (injury-adjusted, within 6-18 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: VERIFIED OUT: Concussion protocol, non-participant in practice Tuesday. Coach Reid confirmed "no progress." Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rashee-rice-return-week-17-133628505.html. KC QB situation dire (Oladokun starting). Projection: 0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 52% MODERATE (15.3 EV), but faces MIN #1 WR defense. XGB: 43% bust (concerning). Lions fighting for #1 seed. Amon-Ra healthy = target competition. Mode: MODERATE (low-end due to matchup). Projection: 12 pts (within moderate range but matchup-adjusted down).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 38% BUST. HOU Rank 2 vs WR (brutal matchup). Behind Keenan Allen in targets. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC0.0-0.0+0.0
14PHI8.7-2.8-5.9
13LV10.0-11.3+1.3
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX12.6-0.0-12.6
10PIT11.7-9.2-2.5
9TEN12.3-15.3+3.0
8MIN13.5-0.0-13.5
7IND14.9-11.0-3.9
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH17.5-6.9-10.6
4NYG13.8-23.8+10.0
3DEN12.7-14.9+2.2
2LV11.5-15.9+4.4
1KC6.4-24.9+18.5
  • Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
  • Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 41% BUST. XGB: 53% bust (highest). Same game as JSN = correlated. WR3 role. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6 pts (within bust range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.7-12.1+3.4
14ATL8.0-16.7+8.7
13MIN7.9-2.6-5.3
12TEN7.8-0.5-7.3
11LAR9.6-4.9-4.7
10ARI10.4-3.3-7.1
9WSH10.8-11.8+1.0
8BYE12.2-14.5+2.3
7HOU11.3-8.0-3.3
6JAX10.0-6.8-3.2
5TB9.3-21.4+12.1
4ARI9.7-9.2-0.5
3NO10.1-8.2-1.9
2PIT11.3-15.2+3.9
1SF10.6-9.3-1.3
  • Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE (9.1 EV). XGB: 24% bust. TEN Rank 16 vs TE (neutral). Full practice, foot managed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE. NE vs NYJ. Solid floor as NE TE1. NYJ Rank 20 vs TE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15BUF10.35.02.8-7.5
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: VERIFIED OUT: Concussion protocol, non-participant in practice Tuesday. Coach Reid confirmed "no progress." Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rashee-rice-return-week-17-133628505.html. KC QB situation dire (Oladokun starting). Projection: 0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 55% BUST. Split backfield with Pollard. TEN vs NO. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts (within 0.2-7.7 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 52% MODERATE (15.3 EV), but faces MIN #1 WR defense. XGB: 43% bust (concerning). Lions fighting for #1 seed. Amon-Ra healthy = target competition. Mode: MODERATE (low-end due to matchup). Projection: 12 pts (within moderate range but matchup-adjusted down).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: KC decimated at QB (Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting). DEN -13.5 favorites = negative game script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: Backup QB. SEA @ CAR as backup to Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16 pts (if started).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE. NE vs NYJ. Solid floor as NE TE1. NYJ Rank 20 vs TE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15BUF10.35.02.8-7.5
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 38% BUST. HOU Rank 2 vs WR (brutal matchup). Behind Keenan Allen in targets. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC0.0-0.0+0.0
14PHI8.7-2.8-5.9
13LV10.0-11.3+1.3
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX12.6-0.0-12.6
10PIT11.7-9.2-2.5
9TEN12.3-15.3+3.0
8MIN13.5-0.0-13.5
7IND14.9-11.0-3.9
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH17.5-6.9-10.6
4NYG13.8-23.8+10.0
3DEN12.7-14.9+2.2
2LV11.5-15.9+4.4
1KC6.4-24.9+18.5
  • Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
  • Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 41% BUST. XGB: 53% bust (highest). Same game as JSN = correlated. WR3 role. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6 pts (within bust range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.7-12.1+3.4
14ATL8.0-16.7+8.7
13MIN7.9-2.6-5.3
12TEN7.8-0.5-7.3
11LAR9.6-4.9-4.7
10ARI10.4-3.3-7.1
9WSH10.8-11.8+1.0
8BYE12.2-14.5+2.3
7HOU11.3-8.0-3.3
6JAX10.0-6.8-3.2
5TB9.3-21.4+12.1
4ARI9.7-9.2-0.5
3NO10.1-8.2-1.9
2PIT11.3-15.2+3.9
1SF10.6-9.3-1.3
  • Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 17.2 16.1 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 20.5 18.4 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 13.2 12.2 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Tyler Warren TE IND 12.1 10.2 41% 40% 19% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 8.9 8.9 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel WR WSH 11.9 11.9 27% 52% 22% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 22.3 18.6 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 8.4 9.1 13% 28% 59% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.4 12.9 9% 48% 43% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jordan Love QB,
Boom%27%
Bust%21%
EV16.6
BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV8.0
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Zach Ertz TE,
Boom%24%
Bust%27%
EV10.1
BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Jordan Love QB 16.6 27% 21% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.0 27% 24% 0.0%
Zach Ertz TE 10.1 24% 27% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.4 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 8.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 9.8 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.6 18% 45% 0.0%
Giants D/ST D/ST 6.7 18% 46% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 9.0 16% 48% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.7 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.1 14% 51% 0.0%
Jayden Reed WR 11.7 13% 52% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.6 12% 57% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Jordan Love 16.6 BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% 27% 21%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.6 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.6 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Quinshon Judkins 11.8 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 9% 64%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.5 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 9.8 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Jayden Reed 11.7 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 13% 52%
Darnell Mooney 8.1 BUST:46%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:20% 10% 60%
Keenan Allen 11.7 BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.0 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Zach Ertz 10.1 BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% 24% 27%
Oronde Gadsden 13.7 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 8.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 9.0 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.4 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Bears D/ST 8.4 20% 30%
Giants D/ST 6.7 18% 46%
49ers D/ST 8.1 14% 51%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-24 15:03

Matchup Summary

45.0%

Win Probability

-2.0
Expected Margin
125.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
127.0
Opponent (Proj)
30.5
Margin Std Dev
120.1
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +1.5 pts | Ceiling: +41.1 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 21.0 4.4-27.9 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 5.0-23.7 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 14.0 3.8-24.2 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 22.0 6.4-30.1 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 14.0 3.7-21.7 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 12.0 4.2-26.0 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.0 2.9-16.5 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 24% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 1.0-18.2 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 5.4-18.9 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Sam Darnold QB HIGH 16.0 3.9-27.7 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 15% Sam Darnold
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 7.0 2.6-18.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 29% Tyjae Spears
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 7.0 2.3-15.4 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 14.0 4.8-25.5 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 7.0 2.9-23.1 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Quentin Johnston
Rashid Shaheed WR HIGH 6.0 1.7-20.2 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 28% Rashid Shaheed
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 9.0 3.0-20.7 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 32% Hunter Henry

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR MED 0.0 6.5-27.6 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 18.5 7.4-30.0 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 18.5 11.0-31.1 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB HIGH 16.1 6.2-27.5 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 5% James Cook III
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 13.0 4.4-24.8 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 15% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 12.2 3.1-22.3 ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 20% Jaylen Waddle
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 11.9 3.6-22.6 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% Deebo Samuel
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 10.1 3.2-18.3 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% Tyler Warren
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.9-17.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 9.0 3.8-16.2 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 23% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.3-32.7 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB HIGH 7.6 1.7-14.4 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 36% Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.3 2.0-20.6 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Chimere Dike
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 11.9 3.8-23.1 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 20% Dallas Goedert
Taysom Hill TE HIGH 5.4 0.7-13.8 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 72% Taysom Hill
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.3-21.0 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 33% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.7-16.7 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.3 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.1 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.1
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.8 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.8 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.37.0MODERATE55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.914.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Rashee RiceWR13.70.0OUT24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.49.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.29.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.97.0BUST17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.314.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Quentin JohnstonWR8.37.0BUST15.2%45.7%39.1%
Rashid ShaheedWR9.46.0BUST13.8%33.2%53.0%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.321.0MODERATE13.5%50.0%36.4%
Sam DarnoldQB15.916.0MODERATE13.3%42.9%43.8%
Bucky IrvingRB14.715.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.412.0MODERATE12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB8.97.0BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.822.0MODERATE11.4%66.0%22.6%
Omarion HamptonRB14.914.0MODERATE9.0%33.3%57.7%
Hunter HenryTE10.79.0MODERATE8.0%30.5%61.6%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

  • DK Metcalf (PIT) - Suspended for fan altercation, irrelevant to us but confirms JSN is SEA WR1
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. - Heel injury, played 51% snaps Week 16 (29/57), 1/3 targets for 14 yds. Coach says "he wants to play"
  • Rashee Rice - Still in concussion protocol, non-participant in practice. Unlikely Week 17
  • Patrick Mahomes - Torn ACL, DONE for year. Gardner Minshew also ACL (done). Chris Oladokun starting
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown - Expected to play vs MIN (knee)
  • Jameson Williams - Healthy, no injury designation

Vegas Lines Context

Game Total Spread Implication
ARI @ CIN 52.5 CIN -7 HIGHEST TOTAL - shootout expected, MHJ ceiling play
SEA @ CAR 42.5 SEA -7 JSN + Myers safe plays, Panthers fighting for division
DET vs MIN 43.5 DET -7.5 Williams tough matchup but competitive game
TB vs MIA 45.5 TB -5.5 Irving positive game script
KC @ DEN 36.5 DEN -13.5 AVOID KC - blowout, backup QB, negative script

WR Debate Summary

Agents voted 3-1 for Williams (WR2) + MHJ (FLEX) over McMillan. Key factors: - Williams: Highest MC EV (15.3), Lions playoff push - MHJ: Highest XGB boom (42%), elite game environment (52.5) - McMillan: Strong backup (5 TDs in 5 games) if MHJ limited

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.1
Our Team MAE
17 players
14.1
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 12.2
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 22.3 - 0.0 -22.3
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.8 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 20.5 - 0.0 -20.5
Opponent RB James Cook III 17.2 - 0.0 -17.2
Our Team QB Sam Darnold 15.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.9 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 14.9 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 13.2 - 0.0 -13.2
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 12.4 - 0.0 -12.4
Opponent TE Tyler Warren 12.1 - 0.0 -12.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.4 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent WR Deebo Samuel 11.9 - 0.0 -11.9
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.2 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.7 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 8.9 - 0.0 -8.9
Opponent K Cairo Santos 8.4 - 0.0 -8.4
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.3 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 8.9 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team WR Quentin Johnston 8.3 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team WR Rashid Shaheed 9.4 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 13.7 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.1 pts
90th percentile 23.6 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 21.8 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 17.8 pts
90th percentile 30.0 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 25.5 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 12.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 13.7 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
39%
10th percentile 6.6 pts
Median (50th) 15.5 pts
90th percentile 27.4 pts
MC (Historical)
39% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 14.9 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.8 pts
90th percentile 16.4 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 26.4 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 21.0 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 28.2 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 6.3 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.0 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.7 pts
90th percentile 15.4 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Sam Darnold (QB)
Sam Darnold distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
38%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 15.4 pts
90th percentile 27.6 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.7 pts
BUST
51%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 21.2 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Quentin Johnston (WR)
Quentin Johnston distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 23.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Rashid Shaheed (WR)
Rashid Shaheed distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 9.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 1.7 pts
Median (50th) 9.4 pts
90th percentile 20.1 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 22.3 pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 11.0 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 30.9 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.4 pts
90th percentile 27.6 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 22.3 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Deebo Samuel distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 11.9 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 22.8 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Tyler Warren (TE)
Tyler Warren distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 9.3 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
41% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 20.5 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 7.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 29.7 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 17.8 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM